This has turned into a "YES! I'm going to make money because the drum market has finally made the turn!" thread.
I appreciate that some people want to make money on these things. That's your own business and it's not a bad business to get in to. But, to hope and wish for something and get fleeting glances like this and draw the conclusion that the market has turned ... well that's just ludicrous. Study the numbers over an extended period of time. Look at the real data and draw your own conclusions. The market has not turned. It's acting just like it has for the past twenty years. One brand is hot, another is not. The hot brand demands top dollar and the others are relegated to whatever people pay.
Think back ... it was Radio Kings that were in demand. You couldn't touch a kit for less than 2k or a rare floor for less than 1k. Now, a 16 inch floor goes for between 2 and 4 hundred.
Rogers 14 floors are another example. There was a time that these things would CONSISTENTLY bring in 1500 or more. Now, you might break 1k ... if you're lucky. More likely you'll get closer to 800-900. That drop took place in only two years. Does that mean that 14 floors are not as special? No. It's just the way the drum market flows.
Gretsch falls into the same category. Most of the kits and drums go for under 2k. There are a few rare ones that demand top dollar (as well they should).
Ludwig has dropped fairly drastically as of late.
Slingerland 60's are climbing steadily. Their 70's kits are even making a move.
Two years ago, you couldn't give them away.
Ludwig Standards are beginning to be noticed.
All of this movement is not because the market is shifting. It's because it is behaving as it has for quite some time. Things come and things go. Drummers are buying and experimenting with different makes and configs. It's just how it is.
Why do you think there are RUNS on certain wraps and such? It's because the buyers and sellers are reacting to little blips in desire. One year, the Vistalites are all the rage. Handful of years later, you can't give them away. Check ebay's market on those as of late. They just don't move.
I do appreciate the collectors wanting the market to jump. I really do. It would mean serious return and VALIDATION for all the time and money invested.
Unfortunately, it just isn't happening. No matter how much you hope and wish for it, the data is just not there. There will always be stupid people spending way too much for this or that. Heck, I'm one of 'em. I paid too much for my 80N kit. Luckily, the Slingerland prices have crept up ever so slightly that I'm at least in the ballpark for a return on my investment. But, it's not for sale so it really doesn't matter. When I do decide to sell, I'll more than likely lose money on the deal. I can live with that. It would be like renting the kit for several years. That's doable.
Bottom Line:
The most important factor to consider is the value of the dollar. Over a period of twenty or thirty years, it can fluctuate like a fish on the pier, bouncing up and down, gasping for breath. That has to be accounted for in your value equation. It's an organic variable and can be tough to pin down.
It cracks me up sometimes when a duffus will list an increase in value - "1990 this thing was selling for 500. Now it's worth 900. I've almost doubled my investment!"
Not quite. Annual inflation would be about 2.73%. That means you would spend 1.71 today for every one dollar in 1990. So, your initial investment of 500 would equal 855 today. Your return on your twenty year investment is only 45 dollars.
These are the little bits that are lost and ignored when calculating value and watching the markets. If you really are serious about your vintage collections and your potential return, then you should see the big picture. There's more to this than what has been discussed in this thread.
